US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Geopolitics

This market resolves to YES if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026. Intercepted missiles or ground operations do not qualify.

Resolves: June 30, 2026Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 02:57 AM

Yes

67.7%

32.3%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 45.2s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

75% confidence5 web searches28.3s

Yes

68.0%

32.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

75% confidence5 web searches37.4s

Yes

70.0%

30.0%

Grok 3

70% confidence3 web searches45.2s

Yes

65.0%

35.0%