US strikes Iran by...?

Geopolitics

This market resolves to YES if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date. Intercepted missiles, ground operations, cyberattacks, or naval actions do not qualify.

Resolves: June 30, 2026Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Monday, February 9, 2026 at 12:57 AM

Not by June 30

77.7%

By June 30

11.3%

By March 31

7.3%

By February 28

3.7%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 28.9s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

80% confidence5 web searches19.7s

Not by June 30

93.0%

By June 30

4.0%

By March 31

2.0%

By February 28

1.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

60% confidence2 web searches25.7s

Not by June 30

70.0%

By June 30

15.0%

By March 31

10.0%

By February 28

5.0%

Grok 3

30% confidence1 web search28.9s

Not by June 30

70.0%

By June 30

15.0%

By March 31

10.0%

By February 28

5.0%