US recession by end of 2026?

Finance

This market resolves to YES if U.S. real GDP declines for two consecutive quarters (Q2 2025 through Q4 2026), or if the NBER publicly announces a recession occurred during 2025-2026 by the time the BEA releases the Q4 2026 advance estimate.

Resolves: January 31, 2027Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Monday, February 9, 2026 at 12:56 AM

Yes

41.0%

59.0%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 30.4s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

70% confidence5 web searches23.7s

Yes

38.0%

62.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

30% confidence2 web searches30.4s

Yes

35.0%

65.0%

Grok 3

30% confidence1 web search17.6s

Yes

50.0%