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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
GeopoliticsThis market resolves to YES if Russia and Ukraine agree to and implement a bilateral ceasefire of any duration by December 31, 2026. A ceasefire must be officially announced by both governments or confirmed by a major international organization.
Council Prediction
Monday, February 9, 2026 at 12:53 AMYes
35.0%
No
65.0%
Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 34.7s
Council Breakdown
3/3 members
GPT-4.1
70% confidence5 web searches34.7s
Yes
30.0%
No
70.0%
Claude Sonnet 4
40% confidence1 web search24.8s
Yes
35.0%
No
65.0%
Grok 3
30% confidence1 web search22.1s
Yes
40.0%
No
60.0%