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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
GeopoliticsThis market resolves to YES if Russia and Ukraine agree to and implement a bilateral ceasefire of any duration by December 31, 2026. A ceasefire must be officially announced by both governments or confirmed by a major international organization.
Council Prediction
Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 03:00 AMYes
30.7%
No
69.3%
Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 32.8s
Council Breakdown
3/3 members
GPT-4.1
75% confidence4 web searches24.6s
Yes
22.0%
No
78.0%
Claude Sonnet 4
75% confidence5 web searches32.8s
Yes
35.0%
No
65.0%
Grok 3
70% confidence3 web searches32.6s
Yes
35.0%
No
65.0%