Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics

This market resolves to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election, based on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all calling the race for the same candidate. If all three haven't called it by inauguration (January 20, 2029), resolves based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves: November 7, 2028Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Monday, February 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM

Other

20.7%

Gavin Newsom

12.7%

Kamala Harris

12.7%

Ron DeSantis

11.7%

JD Vance

9.0%

Josh Shapiro

8.0%

Donald Trump

7.3%

Pete Buttigieg

7.0%

Marco Rubio

6.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

4.3%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 40.0s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

70% confidence6 web searches34.0s

Other

32.0%

Kamala Harris

13.0%

Ron DeSantis

11.0%

Gavin Newsom

10.0%

JD Vance

7.0%

Donald Trump

7.0%

Josh Shapiro

7.0%

Pete Buttigieg

6.0%

Marco Rubio

4.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

3.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

30% confidence4 web searches40.0s

Gavin Newsom

18.0%

JD Vance

15.0%

Josh Shapiro

12.0%

Ron DeSantis

12.0%

Kamala Harris

10.0%

Marco Rubio

8.0%

Pete Buttigieg

8.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

7.0%

Other

5.0%

Donald Trump

5.0%

Grok 3

20% confidence1 web search35.5s

Other

25.0%

Kamala Harris

15.0%

Ron DeSantis

12.0%

Donald Trump

10.0%

Gavin Newsom

10.0%

Marco Rubio

8.0%

Pete Buttigieg

7.0%

JD Vance

5.0%

Josh Shapiro

5.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

3.0%