Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics

This market resolves to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election, based on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all calling the race for the same candidate. If all three haven't called it by inauguration (January 20, 2029), resolves based on who is inaugurated.

Resolves: November 7, 2028Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 03:04 AM

JD Vance

25.7%

Gavin Newsom

18.7%

Other

18.0%

Ron DeSantis

7.0%

Marco Rubio

6.7%

Josh Shapiro

6.0%

Kamala Harris

5.7%

Pete Buttigieg

4.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

4.3%

Donald Trump

3.3%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 52.4s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

70% confidence6 web searches32.1s

JD Vance

30.0%

Other

25.0%

Gavin Newsom

22.0%

Ron DeSantis

6.0%

Marco Rubio

4.0%

Josh Shapiro

4.0%

Kamala Harris

3.0%

Pete Buttigieg

3.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

2.0%

Donald Trump

1.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

75% confidence5 web searches38.2s

JD Vance

32.0%

Gavin Newsom

22.0%

Other

9.0%

Marco Rubio

8.0%

Josh Shapiro

8.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

6.0%

Ron DeSantis

6.0%

Kamala Harris

4.0%

Pete Buttigieg

3.0%

Donald Trump

2.0%

Grok 3

60% confidence2 web searches52.4s

Other

20.0%

JD Vance

15.0%

Gavin Newsom

12.0%

Kamala Harris

10.0%

Ron DeSantis

9.0%

Marco Rubio

8.0%

Pete Buttigieg

8.0%

Donald Trump

7.0%

Josh Shapiro

6.0%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

5.0%