Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Politics

This market resolves to the first individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, resolves to None before 2027.

Resolves: December 31, 2026Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 02:58 AM

Kristi Noem

30.0%

None before 2027

24.6%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

13.6%

Other

12.3%

Pam Bondi

6.7%

Stephen Miran

5.7%

Tulsi Gabbard

3.8%

Pete Hegseth

3.3%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 40.3s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

70% confidence9 web searches29.8s

Kristi Noem

48.0%

Pam Bondi

13.0%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

11.0%

Other

7.0%

Stephen Miran

7.0%

Tulsi Gabbard

6.0%

Pete Hegseth

4.0%

None before 2027

4.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

75% confidence5 web searches40.3s

None before 2027

54.7%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

19.9%

Other

14.9%

Stephen Miran

5.0%

Pam Bondi

2.0%

Kristi Noem

2.0%

Pete Hegseth

1.0%

Tulsi Gabbard

0.5%

Grok 3

75% confidence5 web searches35.1s

Kristi Noem

40.0%

Other

15.0%

None before 2027

15.0%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

10.0%

Pam Bondi

5.0%

Pete Hegseth

5.0%

Stephen Miran

5.0%

Tulsi Gabbard

5.0%