Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Politics

This market resolves to the first individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, resolves to None before 2027.

Resolves: December 31, 2026Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Monday, February 9, 2026 at 12:52 AM

Other

23.7%

Kristi Noem

17.7%

None before 2027

15.0%

Pam Bondi

12.3%

Scott Bessent

8.7%

Howard Lutnick

8.3%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

7.3%

Stephen Miran

7.0%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 23.8s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

40% confidence1 web search18.7s

Other

26.0%

Kristi Noem

18.0%

None before 2027

15.0%

Pam Bondi

12.0%

Stephen Miran

8.0%

Howard Lutnick

8.0%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

7.0%

Scott Bessent

6.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

30% confidence1 web search23.8s

Kristi Noem

20.0%

Other

15.0%

Pam Bondi

15.0%

Scott Bessent

15.0%

Howard Lutnick

12.0%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

10.0%

Stephen Miran

8.0%

None before 2027

5.0%

Grok 3

30% confidence1 web search14.2s

Other

30.0%

None before 2027

25.0%

Kristi Noem

15.0%

Pam Bondi

10.0%

Scott Bessent

5.0%

Stephen Miran

5.0%

Howard Lutnick

5.0%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

5.0%