How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Finance

This market resolves according to the exact number of 25 basis point rate cuts made by the Fed in 2026, including any cuts made during the December meeting. A 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts. Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings also count.

Resolves: December 31, 2026Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Monday, February 9, 2026 at 12:56 AM

2 cuts (50 bps)

24.3%

1 cut (25 bps)

20.0%

0 cuts

18.3%

3 cuts (75 bps)

18.3%

4 cuts (100 bps)

12.3%

5+ cuts (125+ bps)

6.7%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 32.3s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

70% confidence5 web searches32.3s

2 cuts (50 bps)

23.0%

1 cut (25 bps)

20.0%

3 cuts (75 bps)

20.0%

0 cuts

15.0%

4 cuts (100 bps)

12.0%

5+ cuts (125+ bps)

10.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

30% confidence3 web searches31.5s

2 cuts (50 bps)

25.0%

0 cuts

20.0%

3 cuts (75 bps)

20.0%

1 cut (25 bps)

15.0%

4 cuts (100 bps)

15.0%

5+ cuts (125+ bps)

5.0%

Grok 3

30% confidence4 web searches17.4s

1 cut (25 bps)

25.0%

2 cuts (50 bps)

25.0%

0 cuts

20.0%

3 cuts (75 bps)

15.0%

4 cuts (100 bps)

10.0%

5+ cuts (125+ bps)

5.0%