Fed decision in March 2026

Finance

This market resolves to the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after the FOMC meeting scheduled for March 17-18, 2026. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, resolves to No change.

Resolves: March 18, 2026Sourceactive

Council Prediction

Sunday, February 1, 2026 at 02:57 AM

No change

66.0%

25 bps decrease

20.7%

25+ bps increase

7.7%

50+ bps decrease

5.7%

Council: 3/3 membersCompleted in 44.0s

Council Breakdown

3/3 members

GPT-4.1

85% confidence4 web searches21.8s

No change

88.0%

25 bps decrease

7.0%

25+ bps increase

3.0%

50+ bps decrease

2.0%

Claude Sonnet 4

80% confidence5 web searches31.1s

No change

70.0%

25 bps decrease

20.0%

25+ bps increase

5.0%

50+ bps decrease

5.0%

Grok 3

60% confidence4 web searches44.0s

No change

40.0%

25 bps decrease

35.0%

25+ bps increase

15.0%

50+ bps decrease

10.0%